PEAK OIL AND THE GREAT RECESSION
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Emeritus Prof. of Geology
Princeton University
In 2001, my first oil book predicted that world oil production would peak in the year 2005. The most recent data from the Energy Information Agency say that it happened! Even with the extreme spike in oil prices, the year 2008 produced less oil than 2005. Production for the first half of 2009 is even lower. The invisible hand of economics has become the invisible fist; pounding the world economy down to match the reduced oil supply.
In 1956, M. King Hubbert correctly predicted that United States oil production would peak in the year 1970, although the mathematics that he used was complicated. In my second oil book, in 2005, I developed an exactly equivalent mathematical derivation using three lines of high-school algebra. My third oil book is due out in the spring of 2010. Stay tuned.
Our existing transportation system is heavily dependent on oil and our versatile petrochemical industry turns out a huge range of useful products. Agriculture is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas. During this recession, China is shopping internationally for mineral resources, especially oil.
During the last few years, mature petroleum source rocks have been developed as important new sources of natural gas, although they are called “shales.” Uranium is available in sufficient amounts to support an expanded network of nuclear reactors.
A significant shortage of petroleum geologists, geophysicists, and engineers is developing as the previous generation is retiring. A banker, Matthew Simmons, calls it “no freshman class. Redeveloping existing oilfields is a remaining opportunity for an individual to become wealthy; big Texas rich.
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