BMJ 2011; 343:d5506 http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/bmj.d5506 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21972295 ABSTRACT We constructed a state transition, compartmental, mathematical model of tuberculosis epidemics to estimate the impact of alternative future smoking trends on tuberculosis control. We projected tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality in each World Health Organization region from 2010 to 2050, and incorporated changing trends in smoking, case detection,...