During the next decade, there is likely to be an increase in tidal stream and wave power generation activity in Scottish Waters, together with the... » More

During the next decade, there is likely to be an increase in tidal stream and wave power generation activity in Scottish Waters, together with the designation of additional offshore areas for seabird conservation. Experience suggests that these devices have the potential to affect seabirds' behaviour and habitat, leading to changes in rates of energy acquisition (e.g. through altering prey abundance) or expenditure (e.g. shifting the commuting distances by modifying spatial arrangement of prey patches). These changes to seabird energy budgets could impact rates of reproduction or survival. Simulation modelling of alterations to energy budgets is being used to predict the direction and magnitude of population impacts. 

A behaviour based model is being constructed to estimate how various development scenarios could alter adult body mass, and fledging mass of the chick. Individual units within the model include two interrelated adult parent birds and their chick, and the model will be run for the length of the breeding season. The behavioural state of each of the parents is based on their knowledge of the environment and their physiological condition as well as their chick. Completed sections of the model will be presented including important parameter estimates and sensitivity analyses.

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